Derby

Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Big Brown. That's your trifecta, in that order.

Box 'em if you want, but don't bother putting Big Brown on top. He's as good a favorite as we've seen in a while, and he might be a clear pick for the win if he hadn't drawn such a craptacular post position. Yes, he won the Florida Derby from #12, but #12 ain't #20 and the Florida Derby ain't the Kentucky Derby. It would take everything the horse has and a hall-of-fame level performance from the jockey to get around a field this talented and win from so far outside. Still, I think he'll pull up into the money.

Eight Belles has to have something under the hood or they wouldn't have pulled her out of the Oaks to run the Derby. She'll be a lousy bet at the track, though; as a gray filly, she'll be pretty much everybody's pick.

Why Z Fortune? I don't know; he's had some good runs and looks like the sort of middle-of-the-huge-pack contender that can step it up. I hate to curse the poor horse with my pick; it almost guarantees that he'll run way out in front right into the stretch and then stop for a snack or something. But there it is.