Oscar predictions
I've actually seen most of the movies up for awards this year, so here are my picks for the big Oscars:
BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR: No Country for Old Men
This is a two-horse race between No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. Juno deserved the nomination, but won't win. Michael Clayton is worth watching because George Clooney is always worth watching, but it really has no business here, especially with the superior American Gangster out there. (I haven't seen Atonement, but I don't think it would change my mind if I had.)
If you cut off the last 30 minutes of No Country and Blood, it would be a tight race, with a little edge maybe going to No Country. But its last 30 minutes just felt anticlimactic and unsatisfying to me, while the ending of Blood is a master stroke.
Still, I think the Academy would rather give the Oscar to the Coen brothers, since Paul Thomas Anderson's best movies may very well be ahead of him. (Hard to imagine, but plausible.) They'd also like to make up for picking The English Patient over Fargo ten years ago. So I'm picking No Country for both Best Picture and Best Director.
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
There's just no contest here. DD-L gave one of the best performances on film ever, and he'll get the award for it. This is the second-biggest lock of the night, closely following...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Again, I don't think there's a contest here. This was a career-making role for Bardem, who can now split the "creepy Latin guy" roles with Benecio del Toro. (I wonder if they approached del Toro for the role? It seems perfect for him.)
BEST ACTRESS: Ellen Page, Juno
This one is tougher, especially since I've only seen two of the movies. Cate Blanchett was good in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, but the movie was meh, and it's not like she was transcendent or anything--just her usual excellent self. I've heard Marion Cotillard called the frontrunner for La Vie en Rose, and I can't comment because I haven't seen it. Page was just so lovable as Juno that I think voters will lean in her direction, even if the movie is less "serious" than others.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Again, I haven't seen Atonement, but I've seen the other four. I just don't think they'll give Cate Blanchett another BSA award for playing another famous 20th century personality, no matter how good she was, especially since that was a difficult movie to "get". No performance from the rest really stands out. I think they'll give it to Ruby Dee because she's a great person and a great actress in a great movie that didn't get much love otherwise, even if she's only in it for about five minutes.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody, Juno
I think the voters will want to give Juno its props, and here will be a good chance.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
They'll give Anderson his due here.
