I've seen almost all of the major Oscar contenders except for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, so I guess I should offer up my predictions. I don't know how insightful they are, though; this year it seems like there isn't much drama. I'd be surprised if there were any big, surprising upsets.
Best Picture and Best Director: Slumdog Millionaire
This is a two-horse race between Slumdog and Milk, but while Milk is a damn good biopic, in the end it's another biopic. Slumdog felt fresh and new, at least to those of us who don't really do Bollywood. Frost/Nixon and The Reader are both great movies and might be contenders in weaker years, but they don't have a shot here. I don't think the two-horse race is close enough for them to split BP and BD this year.
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
This is the toughest two-horse race to call. Sean Penn was fantastic, doubly so for disappearing into the role of Harvey Milk and never once making us think of Spicoli. But Rourke's Randy
"The Ram" Robinson was such a huge surprise that I think the voters going back and forth between them will ultimately settle on him. The only question is whether they'll want to reward Milk somehow, since it won't get Best Picture. I really loved Richard Jenkins (aka the elder Nate Fischer) in The Visitor, but a lot of voters probably didn't see it, and it really isn't in the same class anyway. His nomination was his win.
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Winslet is past due, and she was just as good in Revolutionary Road (though it wasn't as good a movie). She also got to wear "old" makeup, which voters love. And she was mostly naked for the first quarter of the movie, which didn't hurt. Meryl Streep is the only other contender, but Doubt ended on such a clunky note that I think it will hurt her. (It wasn't her fault, but it was her line.) Anne Hathaway showed surprising depth and range in Rachel Getting Married, but she was the most annoying thing about an otherwise wonderful movie.
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
I'm pretty sure they carved his name on the statuette six months ago. I was happy to see Lexington's own Michael Shannon get a nomination for his scene-stealing performance in Revolutionary Road; he was also really good in a movie called Shotgun Stories.
Best Supporting Actress: Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I know I haven't seen it, but I'm going out on a limb here. Viola Davis was only in Doubt for about five minutes--they were a great five minutes, probably the best of the movie, but I don't know how much impact it had. Neither Amy Adams nor Penelope Cruz bowled me over in their roles (though I'm growing to love Adams in anything). Marisa Tomei was good (and, it must be said, hot) but she probably already has one Oscar more than she should. So by process of elimination, I'm going with Henson.
A few more:
Original Screenplay: Wall-E. I think voters will give it anything they can, since they can't vote for it for Best Picture. (It totally deserved a nomination, and would have made it a tough call for me.)
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Original Song: "Down to Earth" from Wall-E. See above, plus the Slumdog songs will split the vote. (I'd love to see M.I.A. win an Oscar, though.)
Documentary: Man on Wire. Along with Wall-E and Slumdog, one of my three favorite movies of the year.
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